{"id":535,"date":"2026-08-03T16:39:06","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T16:39:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thirstier.news\/?p=535"},"modified":"2026-08-03T16:39:06","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T16:39:06","slug":"new-ai-tool-forecasts-drought-90-days-ahead-nationwide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thirstier.news\/?p=535","title":{"rendered":"New AI Tool Forecasts Drought 90 Days Ahead Nationwide"},"content":{"rendered":"
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New AI Tool Forecasts Drought 90 Days Ahead Nationwide
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System gives water managers, farmers and communities early warning of streamflow drought conditions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/h3><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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\n By Communications and Publishing<\/a>
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\n March 31, 2026
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RESTON, Va. \u2014<\/strong> The U.S. Geological Survey released a new machine learning tool that forecasts droughts up to 90 days ahead nationwide. The tool may provide communities extra time to prepare for water shortages that could impact agriculture, municipal supplies, recreation and ecosystems.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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River DroughtCast<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n Sources\/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>
This gif shows an example series of drought status symbols at streamgages for the lower 48 United States by week beginning with current conditions on March 17, 2026 and then for predictions of drought through June 15, 2026.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

The tool forecasts streamflow drought, which is when rivers and streams drop below normal levels for extended periods, which may directly impact water availability even when rainfall returns to normal.<\/p>\n

The USGS River DroughtCast <\/a>uses machine learning models trained on data from thousands of USGS streamgages, some with more than 100 years of continuous records, to forecast when rivers and streams will drop to abnormally low levels.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe USGS is putting more than a century of streamflow data to work in a completely new way, using machine learning to predict streamflow drought weeks in advance,\u201d said John Hammond, USGS project manager for the drought forecasting system.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Streamflow drought occurs when rivers and streams stay below normal levels for extended periods, distinct from the more familiar meteorological droughts characterized by lack of rainfall. While lack of rain typically comes first, factors like soil moisture, snowpack, and groundwater all influence how dry conditions translate into reduced river flows. This makes streamflow drought particularly difficult to predict but critically important for water resource planning.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A user of the tool can choose any length of forecast between one and 13 weeks, with the tool being most reliable in the first four to six weeks. Regardless of the length of the forecast, the first week of severe or extreme drought conditions are correctly predicted approximately 75% of the time. This reliability drops to approximately 55% of the time by week 13. All forecasts include confidence estimates so users can understand the reliability of predictions during different timeframes.<\/p>\n

River DroughtCast assists with a gap between short-term weather forecasts and seasonal water supply outlooks. Farmers relying on surface water irrigation may adjust planting schedules and crop selections. Municipal water managers may implement conservation measures. Recreation operators may prepare for impacts to fishing, boating and other water-dependent activities.<\/p>\n

River DroughtCast currently provides forecasts for more than 3,000 USGS streamgage locations with at least 40 years of data. Developers are working on the next version to expand public access to areas without gauges and to further improve forecast accuracy.<\/p>\n

The USGS created River DroughtCast in partnership with NOAA\u2019s National Integrated Drought Information System<\/a>, which supported the project throughout its development.<\/p>\n

USGS scientists have long used artificial intelligence tools to improve the quality and timeliness of their work, from accelerating critical mineral mapping<\/a> to detecting earthquakes<\/a> and invasive species<\/a>. In keeping with Executive Order 14179 Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence<\/em> and Secretary\u2019s Order 3444 Leading Interior\u2019s Path to Artificial Intelligence Transformation,\u00a0<\/em>the USGS has published its AI Strategy<\/a> to enable effective, responsible, and innovative integration of AI into science and business practices.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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A hydrologic technician from the USGS Idaho Water Science Center measures streamflow in Lightning Creek at Clark Fork, ID.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Related Information<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/h2>\n