Latest Calculations Conclude Asteroid 2024 YR4 Now Poses No Significant Threat to Earth in 2032 and Beyond
NASA has significantly lowered the risk of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 as an impact threat to Earth for the foreseeable future. When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032. As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted to the Minor Planet Center, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL’s) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory and now have updated its impact probability on Dec. 22, 2032 to only 0.004% and found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century. The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on Dec. 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth.
There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032. That probability is currently 1.7%.
NASA will continue to observe asteroid 2024 YR4 with observatories funded by its Planetary Defense Coordination Office, and NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March to further gain insights about its size for scientific purposes.
While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity for experts at NASA and its partner institutions to test planetary defense science and notification processes. The latest data on all known near-Earth asteroids that could pose an impact hazard to Earth will continue to be available at NASA’s automated Sentry page.
Source: CNEOS Recent News
Source: CNEOS Recent News.
