An analysis found more than 2 million voters cast mail ballots in Michigan in 2024. Nearly half came from Democrats, while Republicans sent 39%, a difference of about 200,000 votes in Democratsâ favor. In this photo, voters in Grand Rapids, Michigan, cast their ballots during the stateâs August 2024 primary. (Photo by Matt Vasilogambros/Stateline)
President Donald Trump has, at times, justified his campaign against mail-in voting in explicitly partisan terms, claiming Republicansâ electoral chances hinge on whether the practice is allowed.
A new analysis from a Democratic-aligned voting rights group, shared first with States Newsroom, shows he may be right: Eliminating mail-in voting would be more disruptive to Democratic voters than Republicans.
Fair Fight Action, a Georgia-based advocacy group founded by Democratic former state Rep. Stacey Abrams, analyzed vote-by-mail data in seven 2024 swing states and potential battlegrounds for the 2026 midterm elections.
Records indicated that Democrats voted by mail more often than Republicans.
The partisan differences didnât swing any battleground states in the 2024 presidential election, all of which Trump won.
But if Trump succeeds in restricting mail voting in the 2026 midterms, which he is attempting through a contentious executive order directing the U.S. Postal Service to enforce new requirements, it could help Republicans win key House and Senate seats as each party seeks a narrow path to a majority in either chamber.
Demsâ mail voting edge
For example, in Michigan, one of the toss-up U.S. Senate races that will determine control, more than 2 million voters cast mail ballots in 2024, according to the Fair Fight analysis.
Nearly half came from Democrats, while Republicans sent 39%, a difference of about 200,000 votes in Democratsâ favor. That gap represents a smaller number of votes than the margin of victory for the winner of the state in the last three presidential elections.
In North Carolina, another state with a close U.S. Senate race in 2026, Democrats voting by mail outnumbered Republicans by about eight percentage points in 2024, though mail ballots accounted for only about 5% of all votes, according to the data.
In a Friday statement to States Newsroom, Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo blamed Trump for undermining trust in vote-by-mail and encouraged voters to view mail voting as a viable method.
âTrump is a desperate loser who has spent years lying to his supporters about mail voting âfraudâ â as a result many stopped using a method they once trusted,â she said. âVoting by mail is secure, convenient, and accessible. Whether voting by mail, early, or on Election Day, make your plan to vote now and see it through.â
In a statement, White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis portrayed the rule on mail ballots as a âcommonsenseâ election security measure.
âIf securing Americaâs elections â through commonsense methods like voter ID and proof of citizenship â would make it harder for Democrats to win elections, perhaps they should reconsider the methods theyâre using to âwin,ââ Bis wrote.
The Fair Fight analysis shows the partisan gap narrows in states with more mail-in voting.
In Arizona, where 83% of voters cast mail ballots in 2024, Republicans held a 5-point margin in mail voting, roughly the same as Trump’s 5.5-point victory in the state. And in Nevada, where 44% of ballots were cast by mail, the mail-in vote was almost evenly split among Democrat, Republican and âotherâ voters.
Mail voting history
Until 2020, mail voting enjoyed broad bipartisan support.
An April 2020 study published by Stanford Universityâs Institute for Economic Policy Research found that in the six Western states â Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Hawaii, Utah and California â that had started implementing a system of mailing ballots to every registered voter, the policy did not help either party while modestly boosting turnout.
âVote-by-mail does not have meaningful partisan effects on election outcomes,â the authors wrote.
But as states ramped up mail voting in the 2020 election as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the issue turned more partisan, with Democrats more likely to stay away from in-person voting.
Trump, then running for reelection, cast unfounded doubts on vote-by-mailâs integrity and warned of dire effects for Republicans.
âMAIL-IN VOTING WILL LEAD TO MASSIVE FRAUD AND ABUSE,â he tweeted in May 2020. âIT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE END OF OUR GREAT REPUBLICAN PARTY. WE CAN NEVER LET THIS TRAGEDY BEFALL OUR NATION.â
After several cycles of roughly equal rates of mail voting, Democratic mail voters nearly doubled Republicans, 60% to 32%, in 2020. The gap narrowed in 2024, with Democratic voters outpacing Republicans 37% to 24%.
Trumpâs claims
While the Postal Service is now arguing in court its rule based on Trumpâs March 31 executive order is not an election regulation but only includes âmodestâ technical specifications for mail, other statements by Trump show the purpose is directly tied to election administration.
Trumpâs order justified new regulations on mail ballots to maintain âpublic confidence in election outcomesâ and âenhance election integrity.â
He previewed the effort in an August 2025 social media post saying he would âlead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTSâ that again made the issue explicitly about partisan advantage.
âWE WILL BEGIN THIS EFFORT, WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY OPPOSED BY THE DEMOCRATS BECAUSE THEY CHEAT AT LEVELS NEVER SEEN BEFORE, by signing an EXECUTIVE ORDER to help bring HONESTY to the 2026 Midterm Elections,â he wrote. âDemocrats are virtually Unelectable without using this completely disproven Mail-In SCAM. ELECTIONS CAN NEVER BE HONEST WITH MAIL IN BALLOTS/VOTING.â
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on whether the rule can be in effect for this yearâs midterms.
Source: Washington State Standard
This article was originally published by Washington State Standard.
